Key Takeaway:
ISIS is taking pre-emptive measures to prevent tribal resistance or cooperation with the ISF behind its lines. Although mass kidnapping incidents similar to those described here have taken place before, the last two days have witnessed an increase in tempo of such activities in multiple areas considered out of government control.
These forceful measures will most likely generate further discontent among Iraqi Sunni communities. They also reveal a sense of vulnerability for ISIS in areas where it sees a potential for a tribal cooperation with the ISF and Peshmerga, especially in the region of northern Salah ad-Din/south of Mosul where recent reports indicate cooperation between the Jubur, Lihib, and Sabawi tribes with the Peshmerga and ISF against ISIS. It is noteworthy that ISIS forces that carried out the kidnappings in southwestern Kirkuk and eastern Tikrit were reported to be from outside these areas, which indicates that ISIS is not present in high concentrations throughout all areas that fell out of government control. Meanwhile, the attacks in Baghdad are worrisome and indicative of ISIS freedom of movement in the capital despite heightened security measures imposed by the ISF and Iraqi Shi’a militias
Comment here