The spread of coronavirus, Covid-19, globally means more populations in lock downs while slowing major economic activities, but for Iraq, it goes beyond the normally expected health and economic crises. The country’s political economy is designed in a way that any economic lose might lead to conventional conflict over resources. The pandemic dramatically decreased revenues of Iraqi Federal Government (FGI) and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) due to the recent oil price crash. The revenue-lose would force governments to pursue some painful readjustments that would probably embroil the country to devastating security instability and conflicts.
The simplest model to anticipate the Iraq’s short-term expected uncertainties is conflict over resources. Major actors of the expected conflict are government backed militias, ruling political parties’ patronage networks within state, and finally, but the most vitally, young protesters who have been taking streets to demand better employment opportunities and overhaul the current political regime. Additionally, FGI and KRG have been in constant long standing oil and financial disputes, and it is hard to expect them finding sustainable solution considering strains the Covid-19 associated crisis put on their budgets.
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